Britain Elects: Reform leads Labour

Reform have only won 12 of the last 200 -and-something council by-elections held since the general election.

Yet the nationwide opinion polls suggest they’re winning upwards of a fifth voters.

So the polls are wrong, right? Wrong! In my model, Britain Elects, Reform also leads Labour by 26 per cent to 25 per cent .

Conservatives meanwhile languish in third on 22 per cent ..