Whither the Global Economy?: "Many of the People Around Trump Subscribe to Crazy Ideas"

Barry Eichengreen : The world on the brink of a trade war: Hardly anyone will be able to stop Trump , given the extent of his power to re-make U.S. trade policy.

The much younger Vice President J.D. Vance is the natural heir to Trump , he says, because he's smarter, more disciplined and has a longer attention span.

The situation is combustible: Europe and China will react to this.

Trump wants to impose high tariffs on all imports, including chips from Taiwan , which U.S. digital companies rely on.

Silicon Valley gods will live to regret their support for Trump , says Eichengreen .

Trump wants the Fed to keep key interest rates low, but there is precedent for presidential interference to distort monetary policy.

Germany should abolish its debt brake, or at least reform it in order to invest sensibly in public goods.

Eichengreen: The world of today is too complex, and trust in Trump and the U.S. is too low.

The leading candidates for the job of Treasury Secretary don't subscribe to this argument for a weak dollar.

But there are holdovers from the first Trump administration who still advocate a weakened dollar.