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Nate SilverUSA Today
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86% Informative
Nate Silver and Allan Lichtman have squabbled on social media about the validity of their respective methods.
Silver, the statistician and pollster who founded FiveThirtyEight, wrote recently in the New York Times that the race is a virtual tie, but his “gut” tells him former President Donald Trump will likely prevail.
In September , Silver questioned whether the professor’s “ 13 keys” he uses to project election results, arguing that the professor's system actually favored Trump .
In 2024 , Silver said at least eight of the keys favor Harris .
Silver's model looks at fundamentals, not the ephemeral events of the campaign, Lichtman said.
Silver's approach is better at "conveying to the public where elections stand," Cook Political Report's David Wasserman said.
At their core, however, the models are entirely different.
VR Score
91
Informative language
90
Neutral language
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