Predicting Elections: Risky Business
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state pollsNew York Post
•This race is close but I’m predicting Donald Trump wins the Electoral College — and possibly the popular vote
68% Informative
David Gergen predicts Donald Trump will win the Electoral College and could even win the popular vote.
Gergen: Every statistical tool says the outcome could be decided by tenths of a point, the political equivalent of scoring a touchdown by inches.
He says the weight of the evidence leads me to predict Donald Trump to win the electoral college and carry the GOP to enhanced majorities in the House and a good night in the Senate .
David Gergen : Polling leaders are no longer the clear favorites heading into election night .
He says whoever wins each of the key states in play will likely carry their party’s Senate nominee over the finish line.
Republicans come into the election holding a 221 - 214 -seat lead, with 218 needed to control the Senate .
Gergen says the House is affected by the same trend toward emphasizing party over person that afflicts Senate .
Henry Olsen : If Harris wins by less than a point or Trump wins the popular vote, Republicans should be expected to pick up as many as a net 10 seats.
Olsen : We must rededicate ourselves to our democratic republican ideals sooner rather than later if we want to keep our nation whole and sound.
American national identity is uniquely and inexorably tied to our form of government.
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