Polls Predict Close Election

This is a Karpf news story, published by Scientific American, that relates primarily to Hillary Clinton’s news.

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many pollsters

Scientific American

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Polls can tell us only the same thing they’ve been predicting for a year and a half: ‘it looks like it’s going to be close’

Summary

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74% Informative

Polls are only as good as their sample: the wider, more representative swath of the public that responds to polling calls, the better the data.

People who respond to polls are the odd ones out, and this self-selection can significantly bias the results in unknowable but profound ways.

In 2016 , 88 percent of national polls overstated Hillary Clinton’s support because they largely missed support for Trump from non-college-educated white voters.

Pollsters are “leaning hard” into recall-vote weighting this time around.

Some pollsters are betting that this year ’s election will look more like those midterms and are weighting their data accordingly.

The electorate can also change a lot in four years : voters die, a crop of new ones turn 18 and become eligible to vote, and many move to different states.

A close race in the polls does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close.

The winner could still take the presidency with a significant margin in the electoral college.

If the polls underestimate Trump ’s support again and he loses, they will likely be used to support claims of election fraud, Karpf says.

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informal

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English

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