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Trump has gained in 538's forecast, but the election is still a toss-up

ABC News
Summary
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87% Informative

538 's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5 .

Now, our forecast gives Trump the bare advantage in the race with a 52 -in 100 chance to win, but the race is still a toss-up.

538 's presidential election forecast is close no matter which way you slice it.

The race can change quickly in the final weeks of the campaign.

But because the polls are so tight right now, if they don't budge, the forecast won't either.

If the polls miss by a historically normal amount, either candidate could easily win 300 votes.