2024 Election Environment Favorable to GOP

GOP advantages in U.S. adults’ party identification and leanings compared with same measures in past presidential election years .

Americans ’ dissatisfaction with the state of the nation, negative evaluations of the economy with a Democratic administration in office.

Republicans hold a more substantial advantage of 14 points ( 54% to 40% ) as the party Americans believe is better able to keep the nation safe from terrorism and other international threats.

Twenty-two percent of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. at this time.

Satisfaction levels this low have been associated with incumbent presidents losing their reelection bids in 1980 ( 19% ), 1992 ( 22% ) and 2020 ( 28% ) In election years when incumbents have not sought reelection, satisfaction has been less strongly related to outcome.

The election results will reveal the extent to which Harris , the incumbent vice president, is saddled with Americans ’ frustrations with the current administration or is able to rise above those.

It may be the case that Americans want to go in a different direction after previously voting against a second term in 2020 .