Nate Silver Visits London

This is a US news story, published by Guardian, that relates primarily to Nate Silver's news.

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London

Guardian

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‘People should be making their contingency plans, like, right away’: America’s leading forecaster on the chances of a Trump win

Summary

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67% Informative

Nate Silver is known for his hugely influential US election model.

His new book, On the Edge , is an attempt to bridge the divide between 'The Village' and 'The River' He came to wider attention on the back of the 2008 presidential election, when his electoral model correctly predicted the winner in 49 out of 50 states.

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight brand is now owned by ABC , but he retains the rights to his model.

On the Edge sets a lot of store by intuition, describing how poker players use a kind of spidey-sense to tell if their opponent is bluffing.

The model gives Trump a 58% chance of winning the electoral college and Harris a 60% .

Silver is notably spiky on X, getting angry with people who disparage his model or practices.

Silver thinks the whole misinformation thing is bullshit, at least to a first approximation’, with too many “labelling ideas that are inconvenient politically as misinformation”.

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Informative language

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Article tone

informal

Language

English

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Offensive language

possibly offensive

Hate speech

not hateful