Recession Predictors Face Challenges
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•Recession forecasts have been wrong for years. Here's why a 'perfect indicator' doesn't exist.
80% Informative
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index signaled a recession in 2022 .
The highly regarded inverted yield curve recession indicator has been activated since November 2022 .
Most recently, the Sahm Rule , which measures short-term rises in unemployment, triggered its recession red flag in early August .
The National Bureau of Economic Research says a recession involves a "significant decline in economic activity".
Recession indicators that track economic data miss the larger fear Americans have when they think about recessions.
Steven Pearlstein won a Pulitzer prize for his work predicting the financial crisis of 2007/2008 .
Harvard economist Jason Furman joked that "almost every recession indicator has not survived the next recession".
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