What can Washington's primary tell us about the fight for the House majority?

Since the early 1990s , Washington 's primary vote for the U.S. House of Representatives has been a reliable indicator for the direction of national electoral swings.

This predictive value likely stems from both the timing and the format of the state's primary.

The two -party vote share for major-party candidates in Washington 's primaries has tended to correlate with how the parties perform nationally in the general election.

Washington 's unusual primary system is even more telling when it comes to how Washington 's individual House races might play out.

The 3rd District in southwest Washington could be decided by the narrowest of margins this November .

Democrats on average gained 1 percent in vote share from the primary to the general — changes like that would only matter in the tightest of races.

Schrier won just over 50 percent of this year 's primary vote in the 8th District in the 1992 -to-2024 period.

Schrier actually won reelection in 2020 even after the Democrats fell slightly short of 50 percent in the primary.

But her 2024 primary performance could be a sign that the district is moving out of the swingy cohort of seats.