Probability Theory Limits Alien Life
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technological alien lifeSpace
•Are we alone? Intelligent aliens may be rare, new study suggests
76% Informative
The Drake equation has been used to estimate the number of technological alien lifeforms in the Milky Way galaxy.
The new study revamps the Drake equation using probabilistic logic.
The formula is based on a probability distribution first introduced by biologist and mathematician J. B. S. Haldane in 1932 .
The value of the other four terms in the equation remain a mystery.
SETI scientists say the occupation fraction of ETI life in the universe is not near 1 .
If we ignore the lack of evidence for a moment, the Drake equation predicts a crowded universe as being equally likely as one in which we are lonely.
The research is currently available as a pre-print, and has been submitted to the International Journal of Astrobiology for peer-reviewed publication.
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English
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