Abortion-rights ballot measures may not help Democrats as much as they think

At least five states will vote on constitutional amendments to enshrine abortion rights into their state constitutions.

Julian Zelizer : There isn't much evidence for the "reverse coattails" theory that abortion-related ballot measures will turn out new Democratic voters.

Zelizer says there's no guarantee that their success will rub off on Democratic candidates.

The data on whether abortion-rights ballot measures goosed turnout is inconclusive, says Aaron Miller .

Miller : Michigan and Vermont had some of the best turnout rates in the whole country in 2022 .

Miller says the common link seems to be voting reforms, not the abortion questions.

He says Democrats should not overestimate the impact of abortion-related ballot measures on their candidates.

Miller , Miller : If these measures help Democrats , it will be the old-fashioned way of persuasion.

Based on the evidence we have, it doesn't look like they are going to motivate many new voters, and not every voter who supports abortion rights is automatically going to vote Democratic . If Democrats want to ride the wave of these measures in 2024 , they'll have to put in the work. Footnotes

Abortion is also already legal in Colorado with no gestational limit, but the ballot initiative there would allow the use of state funds for abortion coverage, which is currently illegal.

Based on the voting-eligible population..